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As Biden’s Future Teeters, Can Polls Actually Be Trusted?

July 12, 2024 By Dave Workman

There is lots of speculation about whether Joe Biden will be on the November ballot, and polling numbers have him behind or slightly ahead of Donald Trump, calling all of the polling data into question.  (Official White House portrait.)

Anti-gun-rights President Joe Biden was in trouble after his disastrous debate with former President Donald Trump, and according to critics, he dug the hole a little deeper during the nearly-hour-long press conference Thursday evening, leading to more speculation he will be replaced by his party as the 2024 presidential nominee.

His responses sometimes featured gaffes for which he is famous, and there were several instances where his answers seemed to drift into nothingness, which he ended with the word “anyway” before moving on.

Now polls are coming in, which raise some questions about their reliability because some have Biden leading Trump by up to two points while others are just the opposite.

A new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll says Biden has taken a 50-48 percent lead over Trump as the Republican National Convention looms in Milwaukee. Trump is certain to emerge as the Republican nominee, having emerged from a field early in the process, like he did in 2016. His popularity among grassroots voters has continued to rise while he has been convicted, criticized and demonized by establishment media and politicians.

Democrats do not convene in Chicago until August.

According to the NPR/PBS poll, “no other mainstream Democrat that has been floated as a potential replacement for Biden on the Democrat ticket…performs better than him against Trump.”

This is the nagging fact which now has Democrats nervous. Many in the party seem willing to throw Biden under the bus in their desire to retain power, a fact fully absorbed by likely voters who have been watching the drama unfold over the past several weeks.

Pew Research is also out with a poll, showing Trump with a 4-point lead over Biden among registered voters, with 44 percent saying they would vote for the former president if the election were held today, while 40 percent would vote for Biden and 15 percent would vote for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

The Pew poll has some interesting revelations. It found only 24 percent consider Biden to be mentally sharp while 54 percent say Trump is mentally sharp. On the downside for Trump, 64 percent consider him “mean-spirited” while only 31 percent think the same of Biden. A majority of respondents think both Trump and Biden are embarrassing.

Into the mix comes Rasmussen with a poll showing only 38 percent of likely voters think Biden is actually doing the job of president while 52 percent think other people are making decisions behind the scenes.

Another Rasmussen revelation is that, “Just 26% of voters are Very Confident that Biden is physically and mentally up to the job of being President of the United States. Another 18% say they are Somewhat Confident in Biden’s capability, while 11% are Not Very Confident and 44% are Not At All Confident.”

According to the poll, “Among voters who don’t believe Biden is really doing the job of president, 39% think his senior political advisors are actually making decisions at the White House, 10% say Cabinet officials are making decisions for Biden and nine percent (9%) believe First Lady Jill Biden is actually in charge. Thirty-percent (32%) think someone else is making decisions at the White House and 10% are not sure.”

Since he was in the U.S. Senate, and certainly since taking office in 2021, Biden has been unfriendly toward the Second Amendment. Gun rights activists universally worry what another Biden term could bring, and they have equal concerns about Vice President Kamala Harris having to take over if Biden cannot finish a second term. She is just as anti-gun as he is.

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Filed Under: Article of the Day, Headlines, News, Opinion, Politics

About Dave Workman

Dave Workman is an award-winning career journalist with an expertise in firearms and the outdoors. He is the author of several books dealing with firearms politics. He has a degree in editorial journalism from the University of Washington and is a lifelong Washington resident.

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